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Global Housing Bubble

We found a beautiful interactive chart from the Economist, comparing Houses prices in 21 countries. Looks like the housing bubble was mostly global (Canada being one of the notable exceptions as they have a much different mortgage market).  Click here to visit Economist site.



Housing, More Pain to Come:Shocker!


I meant to get to this last week, but the day it came out, I was mostly enjoying the sites and vino of Italy. Largely without 3G access(everything is slower in Italy), and I somehow missed it:

“Despite some tentative signs of recovery, the U.S. housing market remains vulnerable to further price drops—especially in areas where large numbers of mortgages are headed toward foreclosure over the next few years.

The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market data in 28 major metro areas shows sharp drops in the number of homes listed for sale across the country. But the potential supply of homes is far larger because banks are likely to acquire significant numbers of foreclosed homes in some areas, notably Las Vegas, Atlanta, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami and other parts of Florida, and Sacramento, Calif., over the next few years.

Sales of those homes may depress prices further. By contrast, metro areas with relatively low foreclosure and mortgage-delinquency rates include Boston, Denver, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Seattle, Raleigh, N.C., and Portland, Ore., making them less vulnerable.

Homeowners and potential buyers have been whipsawed by conflicting signals about the state of the market in recent months. Ulani and Mike Thiessen found the market surprisingly hot when they went shopping for their first home in Las Vegas during the summer. With the help of Kim Kelly-Reed, an agent from One Source Realty & Management, the Thiessens finally bought a foreclosed house in September for about $136,000—but only after being outbid on three other houses.”



chart courtesy of WSJ

Foreclosures Are Concentrated in Just 3 States


3 states account for more than half of July 2009 foreclosuresForeclosure-tracker RealtyTrac reports that the number of foreclosures nationwide rose 7 percent on a month-to-month basis last month.


However, 3 states dominated the foreclosure list, tallying more foreclosures between them than the rest of the country combined.



  • California : 30.0 percent

  • Florida : 15.7 percent

  • Arizona : 5.4 percent

On a per-household basis, the states ranked 2, 3 and 4. Only Nevada's foreclosure rate was higher.


Now, we point out these statistics for two reasons.


The first is to remind you that foreclosures can be highly local. For all of the foreclosure-related stories that run in the papers and on TV, defaults make a much larger impact on home values in some areas versus others.


And, second -- foreclosures can represent a terrific buying opportunity. Not every foreclosed home is in pristine condition, but there is a plethora of affordable housing out there, suitable for first-time buyer, move-up buyers and investors, too.


Furthermore, as banks get better at disposing of foreclosed homes, the process of buying one isn't as challenging as it was, say, 12 months ago.


As part of its research, RealtyTrac.com catalogues a lot of foreclosed homes and lists them online. However, you may find it better to start your search with a local real estate agent that knows the foreclosure market.


So long as buying foreclosures is a high-touch process -- and it is a high-touch process -- you may want to have a human face and agent to guide you through it.


The complete RealtyTrac report is available online.

Millions of home sellers failed Econ 101?

We are going to keep this simple because millions of people must have failed Econ 101 or missed the month of supply/demand charts and it's influence on prices.

If you had a car dealership full of cars that weren't selling what do you do?Hey maybe have an enormous sale:


This is the current for sale inventory of existing single family homes in the U.S.:

from our friends at Calculated Risk.

Maybe the millions of sellers should pore a huge cup of coffee and wake up to today's market. But, who am I to judge that asking prices are too high? Maybe these sellers are aware of 5 million wealthy Asian and Arab buyers that are dying to move in and pay full sticker price. Sure and Santa Clause hangs out with the tooth fairy in the Cayman Islands during August summer break.



The way this standoff resolves itself is with declining prices to meet the available buyers or staying stuborn and waiting for the market to rise up to the current asking prices. Homes are selling every day... that are priced right. And now for a laugh from my favorite newspaper comic when I was a kid. Calvin and Hobbes.

Larger Version of comic.