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Wed, 2009-12-23 10:39 — NationalMortgag...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Dec. 18, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 10.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.9 percent compared with the previous week.
 The Refinance Index decreased 10.1 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 32.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.2 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 0.6 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 75.9 percent of total applications from 75.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 3.8 percent from 4.1 percent of total applications the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained flat at 4.92 percent, with points increasing to 1.23 from 1.08 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.34 percent from 4.33 percent, with points increasing to 1.03 from 0.91 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs remained flat at 6.52 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

For more information, visit www.mortgagebankers.org.

Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.

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“Mortgage rates in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels since the 1940s, thanks to a trillion-dollar intervention by the federal government. Yet the banks that once handed out home loans freely are imposing such stringent requirements that many homeowners who might want to refinance are effectively locked out.
The scarcity of credit not only hurts homeowners but also has broad economic repercussions at a time when consumer spending and employment are showing modest signs of improvement, hinting at a recovery after two years of recession.”

Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.

Mortgage markets were relatively calm throughout last week's holiday-shortened trading sessions.

After trading within a tight range between Monday and Wednesday, a weak jobs report helped edge rates lower into the weekend.

For the second week in a row, mortgage rates ended the week lower than where they started -- if only slightly.

Meanwhile, if it's the expectation of runaway economic growth that fueled the early-June, mortgage rate run-up past 6 percent, it's the tempering of those expectations that helped rates retreat by a 1/2 percent or more since.

While the housing sector continues to post strong numbers, employment is showing that it may not rebound as quickly as previously thought and U.S. consumer confidence remains shaken.

The Unemployment Rate rose to its highest levels in 25 years last month and key confidence levels fell.

With negative job growth and falling consumer optimism, it only makes sense that mortgage rates would fall -- fewer people are working and the public feels uneasy about spending its money.

This week -- without much new data due -- market momentum could push rates even lower. In general, perceived weakness in the economy will be good for mortgage rates and strength will be bad.

However, there's a wildcard.

This week, some of the world's largest nations are expected to call on a replacement for the U.S. dollar as a global currency reserve. Depending on how serious the discussion grows, the value of the U.S. dollar could be negatively impacted and that would spell bad news for rate shoppers.

A weakening U.S. dollar is linked to higher mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates remain favorable and unpredictable. If today's rates make sense for your household budget, consider locking in. Rates won't likely end the week at the same levels at which they started.

Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.

Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random. There's a reason this is happening, however.

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar. Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar "buys less" at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation's impact is more immediate. Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders.

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall.

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices. Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

1. Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations


2. Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row


3. The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors -- plus a few others -- are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios. As a result, they're selling their mortgage bond positions and it's driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent. We can't know for sure. What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment's notice. Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.

After a dreadful start to the month of May, mortgage markets improved last week, pushing jumbo mortgage rates lower overall.

It was the first week since late-April in which mortgage rates fell.

The biggest reason rates improved last week was because the economic optimism that was responsible for the stock market's 30% gain since March faded somewhat.

Retail Sales came in weaker-than-expected as did Initial Jobless claims. Both of these data points show that the economy may not be recovering as quickly as investors had wanted to believe.

Combined with gas prices ballooning more than 10 percent over the last three weeks, it's clear that consumer spending will be muted this summer and into fall.

Consumer spending is important because it accounts for two-third of the economy. If it's slowed for any reason, the economy is less likely to emerge from the current recession as quickly as had been anticipated.

This is good news for mortgage rates because a slow economy tends to draw investors out of stocks and into bonds, including the mortgage-backed kind. More mortgage bond demand leads to higher bond prices and, therefore, lower bond yields and mortgage rates.

This week, there isn't much data to watch and, because of Memorial Day, trading will be very light towards Thursday and Friday.

It's during "calm" weeks like this that mortgage rates can make huge movements up or down. With no official announcements against which traders can make bets, every piece of news is a surprise.

If you're still floating a mortgage rate, take some risk off the table by locking in this week.

Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.

Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside getaway of celebrities and Wall Street financiers, plummeted in the first quarter as the financial crisis cut demand for vacation properties.
The median price fell 23 percent from a year earlier to $675,000. Sellers offered average discounts of 11 percent off their asking price, up from 9.6 percent in the year-earlier quarter, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today in a report.
“The primary reason is linkage to Wall Street,” said Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller. “You’ve got job loss, anticipated job loss, as well as lower compensation and anticipated lower compensation. There’s less of an urgency for people who aren’t affected by that to buy.”
About 23,300 Wall Street employees lost their jobs in the year through February as banks worldwide posted losses and mortgage-related asset writedowns of $1.3 trillion. The credit crisis that claimed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos. also pushed bonuses down 44 percent in 2008, state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said.
The number of homes for sale in the Hamptons, about 100 miles east of New York City, rose 15 percent to 1,673 properties in the first quarter, the largest year-over-year increase since Miller Samuel began keeping records in 2004.

Cutting Prices

The Hamptons are known for multimillion-dollar beachfront estates and homeowners there have included comedian Jerry Seinfeld, real estate developer and publisher Mortimer Zuckerman and billionaire Ronald Perelman. The area is comprised of more than a dozen towns and villages including Amagansett, Water Mill, Bridgehampton and Sag Harbor.
Damon Liss, a Manhattan interior designer and real estate broker for the New York-based Corcoran Group, has been trying to sell a three-bedroom East Hampton cottage since January.
Liss renovated the house, added a swimming pool and new oak floors and then listed it for $1.33 million. In April, he cut the price almost 10 percent to 1.2 million.
“The lower the price the more likelihood it’s going to sell,” he said.
Motivated sellers will follow, Dottie Herman, chief executive officer of Prudential Douglas Elliman, said in an interview.
Dead Market
“In January and February there was basically nothing going on,” Herman said. “There are probably people in the financial sector that really have to cut back.”
In the three months ended March 31, transactions declined 54 percent to 145 properties in the Hamptons. Prudential’s data covers the South Fork of Long Island from Westhampton to Montauk.
In neighborhoods that are close to the ocean where properties sell at a premium, the median home price dropped 45 percent to $637,500 from the year earlier quarter, Miller Samuel said. That’s the biggest decline among all Hamptons neighborhoods and is known as “south of the highway.”
Homes north of Route 27 declined 8.7 percent to $685,000. The median price of homes east of the Shinnecock Canal declined 37.6 percent to $760,000.
Not Happy
The overall drop in sales is the biggest decline since at least 1992, said George Simpson, owner of real estate data company Suffolk Research Service Inc.
“It’s not a very happy place out here,” Simpson said in an interview.
The dollar value of all Hamptons transactions in the first quarter plunged 62 percent form a year earlier to $298 million, according Suffolk Research.
In the luxury market, the top 10 percent of all sales, the median price slid 25 percent to $4.09 million. The number of sales fell to 20 from 40 in the prior year and there were 470 luxury properties on the market in the first quarter.
In a separate report issued today, Miller Samuel and Prudential said the median sales price in New York’s Nassau and Suffolk counties fell 13 percent to $355,000.
The number of sales declined 18 percent to 2,872 and homes stood on the market 134 days before being sold. The data excludes the Hamptons. In Nassau county alone, the median price fell 12 percent to $396,000 and in Suffolk it declined 13 percent to $315,000. To contact the reporter on this story: Oshrat Carmiel in New York at ocarmiel1@bloomberg.net.

Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.

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Mortgage Insider dishes it straight on housing and the mortgage market.