
This week we witnessed a dramatic change within the
jumbo mortgage and luxury financing space that has broad implications for housing markets across the country. It appears to have started with Wells Fargo on Monday and spread within a day to all investors whether bank, insurance, pension or hedge fund money sources. Remember we had earnings from all banks and insurance companies in the last two weeks. This allowed all market participants to peek under the hood and see that the credit engine is leaking oil.
The market above 1m had become restrictive in the last few months moving to a fully documented income, 720 minimum FICO playing field for most loan scenarios. Lending to the wealthy seemed stable. Then this weeks major crack in the 2m+ market which we specialize in, we knew another shoe had dropped in the credit meltdown. Granted 1-20m property finance is a niche within the 10 trillion dollar mortgage industry. But, the changes forecast major declines in luxury markets as this further decreases the available pool of buyers and will pressure prices.
Program loan to value limits were cut between 5-10% at most investors.
We received dozens of calls from brokers, realtors, and loan officers across the country desperatly searching for 20-25% down financing for their purchases that now require 30-35% down or millions in reserves which most clients don't have. Programs are available to put 20% down on property up to 6m but they require 1-3m plus in liquid assets beyond the down payment. It will take a few weeks for this meltdown to be seen in asking prices as housing markets move VERY slowly. Not like your gas station that changes prices every afternoon right before you pull up to fill the tank on the weekend.

As proof of the credit market distress I would like you to consider the 1Y USD LIBOR chart below.

This is May 1st 2007 to May 1st 2008. With hundreds of billions that the European Central Bank and FED Central Bank action in March we had a great move down in LIBOR as they flooded the market with cash in exchange for illiquid securities from banks. Now we have spiked up again and the market is saying that their is huge demand for money and supply is constrained. Lenders are afraid to lend so they are increasing the price. So econ 101 dictates prices must rise hence we have moved up about .75% in the last 30 days. Every borrowing cost is rising yet the FED just cut rates on Wednesday and the market is not responding. Remember the FED rate cuts only matters to banks who can borrow at the window or for your HELOC which is based on prime. The majority of corporate borrowing and 80-90% of adjustable rate mortgages are based on LIBOR. The LIBOR movement has a direct impact on what rate someone gets today and if someone is adjusting now they will move up or down based on LIBOR every 6 months per their
jumbo loan contract.
Well another happy piece of news for folks on the sidelines waiting to buy. Enjoy your weekend and someday this meltdown will be over. Just not for several years. It took time to create the largest asset bubble in history and it will take time to deflate back to the fundamentals.
Extra reading for you credit crunch junkies:
The Fed is apparently still worried about the LIBOR, from the WSJ:
Central Banks Ponder Dollar-Debt RateCentral banks on both sides of the Atlantic are debating causes of the surge in interest rates on commercial banks' dollar-borrowing in money markets and considering what they can do about it.A major source of stress has been the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, a benchmark for the rates banks pay on dollar loans in the offshore market. It remains unusually high compared with expected Federal Reserve interest rates...

If you wonder why
jumbo mortgage rates for all borrowers have increased in recent months at major banks it's because we are in a real deal Holyfield CREDIT CRUNCH. No fooling around, every major financial institution around the world has had to go cap in hand to shareholders or international wealth funds for money. All the money that went into bad loans needs to be replenished and the cost of capital is going up for everyone. Classic supply and demand. As a mortgage banker we saw this meltdown coming years ago and created relationships with insurance companies, pension funds and small banks in order to provide jumbo mortgage financing outside the Wall St blood bath. After you call your bank
give us a call you will be impressed if you have solid credit, income and have equity in your property.
from MarketwatchCiti originally said Tuesday that it would raise $3 billion in a stock offering, but increased that amount by $1.5 billion after demand for the new shares exceeded its original offer. The banking giant said the offering priced at $25.27 per share, with the transaction totaling more than 178 million shares.
Citi shares fell 3.5% in pre-market trading Wednesday.
Citi said that the offering of new common stock, combined with the $6 billion it raised earlier this year selling preferred shares, would have left the company with a Tier 1 capital ratio of 8.6% at the end of March.
"We were pleased to increase the offering size to $4.5 billion in response to strong demand from a broad base of investors," Citi Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said in a statement. "This optimizes our capital structure and further strengthens our balance sheet."
Citi has lost billions of dollars as the global credit crunch hammered the value of risky mortgage-related securities and leveraged loans held by the company. It tapped former hedge-fund manager Vikram Pandit to replace Charles Prince as chief executive last year and is selling some assets and businesses to cut leverage.
Citi also got a $7.5 billion investment from Abu Dhabi in November and said in January that it was raising $14.5 billion more from Singapore, Kuwait and other governments.
Analysts reacted coolly to the newest push to raise capital, saying Wednesday before the announcement of the increased offering, that they remain concerned that Citigroup did not go far enough with its $3 billion target.
"The fact that the company raised such a small amount of capital at this time confounds us," Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney wrote in a research note Wednesday. "By our estimates, we believe Citi needs to raise an additional $10-$15 billion or sell several hundreds of billions worth of assets in order to truly shore up its capital position."
She cited "seriously constrained" earnings power and pressure on four of Citi's 10 core businesses as continuing problems for the bank.
Analysts said Citi may have come under the watchful eye of ratings agencies that are worried it does not have sufficient capital to weather future market disruptions. This means the banking giant will need to increase its reserves significantly over the next few months.
"It is our belief that one or more of the rating agencies did not feel comfortable with the firm's current capital mix and that is why the company offered the $3 billion in common stock," said William Tanona, an analyst for Goldman Sachs, in a note to investors.
"If our assumption is correct, it suggests that additional capital raises will likely also be in the form of common equity, which is most dilutive to shareholders [and] conversely, we view this as a positive for debt holders," Tanona said.
Concern remains on Wall Street that the company may still have large exposure to mortgage-related securities and other vulnerable assets.
Citi reported a $5.1 billion net loss earlier in April as it wrote down the value of soured mortgage investments and other credit-related positions by roughly $12 billion.